Storm chances increase this weekend with potential severe weather
Over the next few days, there will be a few chances for showers and storms, with probabilities increasing later in the week, especially this weekend.
Up First
The first chance of showers arrives late tonight and early tomorrow morning, primarily staying southwest of our immediate area.
A warm front will attempt to lift across North Texas into southwestern Oklahoma.
As a mid-to-upper-level disturbance approaches in the northwest upper airflow, it is expected to trigger scattered showers and storms along and north of this boundary, mainly across southwestern Oklahoma through south-central Oklahoma and North Texas.
If the warm front moves slightly further north than anticipated, a few showers or storms could approach the southwestern parts of our immediate area.
These, however, are expected to stay away from the Tulsa metro area.
A few of these storms overnight into pre-dawn Wednesday will be strong to severe with nickel-sized hail and damaging downburst wind gusts near 60 mph possible.
Thursday Morning Chances
A closer chance for precipitation arrives early Thursday morning as the warm front continues lifting northward.
It will likely position itself across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, with another upper-level disturbance approaching the region.
Scattered showers may develop across far northern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas, although the probability for early Thursday morning remains lowβaround or below 20%.
This probability does include areas near the Tulsa metro.
Friday Storm Chances East
Another upper-level system is expected to develop Thursday night across Texas and lift northeast, bringing scattered showers and potential storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma during Friday.
The probability of rain and storms stands at 30% for the metro but higher probabilities for southeastern OK, where some pockets of locally heavy downpours will be possible.
The Weekend Outlook
Finally, a strong upper-level system will approach from the west late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
While the system's exact path and timing remain uncertain, thunderstorm chances will persist from Saturday night into midday Sunday.
Severe weather is possible during this period, including all modes of severe weather, but differences in forecasts remain regarding the trajectory and timing of this system.
Currently, the probability stands at around 20% for Saturday and 40% for Saturday night and early Sunday morning.
These probabilities may change, so please check for updates regularly.
A Sunday Cold Front
On Sunday morning, a surface low-pressure system will move across northern Oklahoma, accompanied by a cold front sweeping through eastern parts of the state.
Any storms that form Sunday morning will likely move quickly eastward into neighboring states, where the risk of severe weather will increase.
A slight cooldown is anticipated from Sunday with highs in the upper 60s and a more notable reduction on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 50s before another strong storm system approaches the area by mid-next week as warm and moist air returns, bringing additional rain and thunderstorm chances.
Fire Spread Rates
Fire spread rates are expected to remain low to moderate today and tomorrow due to lighter winds.
However, stronger south winds from Thursday through Saturday could enhance fire spread rates, particularly on Thursday, before low-level moisture returns to the region.
The good news is that increased humidity this weekend should help offset fire risks.
Wildfire Prep:
πWhat is a controlled burn? Rules on when and how you can safely do them
πOklahoma Forestry Service prepares firefighters for potential wildfire threats
πHow to protect your home from wildfires: Tips from experts
πOklahoma fire danger: How rural fire departments prepare for days of extreme danger
πRed Cross shares tips for preparing wildfires
Need to know severe weather prep:
πSevere weather safety: what you need to know to prepare
πTornado Watch vs. Tornado Warning: what they mean and what to do
πSevere weather safety: what to do before, during, and after a storm
Emergency Info: Outages Across Oklahoma:
Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric cooperatives, many of which have overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps.
- PSO Outage Map
- OG&E Outage Map
- VVEC Outage Map
- Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map
- Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage MapΒ β (Note Several Smaller Co-ops Included)
ο»ΏThe Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0EjayrNPcDyhRyVETMapkd
The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Apple:
Follow the News On 6 Meteorologists on Facebook!
- Meteorologist Travis Meyer
- Meteorologist Stacia Knight
- Meteorologist Alan Crone
- Meteorologist Stephen Nehrenz
- Meteorologist Aaron Reeves
- Meteorologist Chloe Arroyo
